Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
