Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
